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Grimmelikhuijsen, S., & Porumbescu, G. A. (2017) Reconsidering the expectancy disconfirmation model, Three experimental replications. Public Management Review. 19(9), 1272-1292


The expectancy disconfirmation model (EDM) posits that disconfirmation (the difference between expectations and perceived performance) affects citizen satisfaction. Van Ryzin experimentally manipulated expectations and performance and found a direct effect of performance, but no disconfirmation. We performed: an exact replication; a conceptual replication with extreme manipulations; a conceptual replication that reversed the order of a performance and expectations manipulation. Study 1 and 2 reproduced original findings. In contrast, study 3 indicates that expectation cues are retrospectively used to anchor prior experiences of performance. As the rational assumptions underlying the EDM are increasingly challenged, we need a better understanding of how cognitive biases shape citizen satisfaction.

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